entsprechende Passage fett markiert)Sony's Big Move
With PlayStation 2, Sony gambled that consumers would be willing to spend extra money for a home console that played both videogames and DVD movies. Oppositely, challenger Nintendo bet that buyers would prefer a cheaper, game-specific console without the ability to play DVDs. Nintendo lost the bet.
Sony's ambitions for PlayStation 3 are greater still. It's once more counting on consumers' dual interest in games and movies to propel its next-generation console to the number-one spot. But it's also hoping that the arrival of Blu-ray, which can play high-definition movies and store larger games than ever before, will help sell PlayStation 3, just as the popularity of the console will cement Blu-ray as the unchallenged replacement for today's DVD standard.
Whether it works or not, it's a hell of a strategy.
That Sony has committed PlayStation 3 to use Blu-ray discs puts both Microsoft and Nintendo in shaky positions as they prep their next-generation platforms. Development studios working closely with Microsoft on the successor to Xbox claim that the console will almost certainly launch in late 2005, well before Blu-ray becomes a cost-effective drive solution. Insiders allege that Microsoft hopes to gain the advantage over Sony by releasing its console a full year before the competitor. But the move could put the Seattle-based giant at a significant disadvantage.
Industry tech pundits are convinced that the processing power for PlayStation 3, backed by Sony's Cell architecture, is likely to be leaps and bounds ahead of the competition. Meanwhile, sources close to Microsoft have indicated that Xbox 2, codenamed Xenon, will ship without a hard drive, a move to cut the cost of the console. If Microsoft doesn't at least make a play to include high-definition movie playback in Xenon, it could be throwing away the perception the original Xbox garnered as the most powerful, capable console. And Sony is likely to capitalize on that.
On the other hand, how can Microsoft use either Blu-ray or HD-DVD drives and get Xbox 2 out in 2005 without a skyrocketed price tag?
Nintendo has indicated that it will it ship the successor to GameCube, codenamed Revolution, at the same time that Sony does PlayStation 3 -- in other words, sometime in 2006. This affords the videogame icon the time to implement movie-playback of some kind. The question remains, though, as to whether or not such a feature will be a priority for the company, which has in recent times bucked the trends of the industry. Nintendo, notorious for penny-pinching measures, may once more decide that movie-playback is not a necessity for its home console and focus primarily on game development and presentation. It's also possible that it may adopt a standard DVD drive, once more lagging behind Sony.
With GameCube's 1.5 Gigabyte Optical Discs, Nintendo believed that it had delivered a proprietary, piracy-resistant storage solution with more than enough space for studios, but developers quickly filled the disc up. In fact, compressed full-motion video sequences in games have often suffered from artifacting on Nintendo's console when they haven't on PlayStation 2 or Xbox.
Telling is that nobody seems to know what Nintendo has cooking for Revolution. Nintendo itself has only offered vague statements that the console will be "revolutionary" and that its forthcoming portable Nintendo DS may offer a hint of what consumers can expect of it. Sources claim that even influential movers and shakers at Electronic Arts, the number-one game publisher in the world, have yet be told what Nintendo hopes to do with its next-generation console. One major third party game maker we spoke with believes that Nintendo may, in fact, retreat further into its own circle, downplay third-party support even more, and focus on first-party software for Revolution. A risky proposition given that many of today's most successful games, including Grand Theft Auto, Madden NFL and Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell, come directly from third parties.
Even if that is the case, Nintendo cannot ignore history, which showed that consumers preferred a console with movie-playback to one without it.
Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony are all expected to reveal more details about their next-generation consoles, and accompanying strategies, at the Electronics Entertainment Expo 2005 next May in Los Angeles.
Will Hollywood Come Knocking?
The biggest threat to the HD-DVD alternative is Sony. The company's decision to make PlayStation 3 Blu-ray compatible is a Trojan horse for the format, sure to put Blu-ray players in millions of homes from the start. But on top of that, Sony has the power to single-handedly jumpstart Hollywood's support of the Blu-ray format, which so far no single company has been able to do.
Sony Pictures owns Columbia and TriStar studios, which means that it can immediately release films like Spider-Man 1 and 2, Men in Black 1 and 2, Terminator 2: Judgment Day, and Air Force One in high-definition on Blu-ray disc. These are some of the most lucrative movie franchises that Tinseltown has to offer, according to box office reports. Sony's TriStar and Columbia studios have literally dozens and dozens of other properties to draw from, too.
And in a recent industry-shaking $2.5 billion deal, a group led by Sony bought the long-standing Hollywood studio Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, also known as MGM. Sony purchased MGM primarily for its expansive movie library, the biggest in the industry with some 4,000 movies including the James Bond 007 and Pink Panther franchises.
Between its internally owned studios and the recently purchased MGM, Sony can potentially deliver Blu-ray and PlayStation 3 owners a library of some 5,000-plus high-definition movies as quickly as they can be turned out.
The Blu-ray Disc Association hopes that the full support of Sony Pictures, Columbia, Tri-Star and MGM from the start will entice other reluctant Hollywood studios to abandon any plans to consider the HD-DVD format and jump on board the Blu-ray one.
Some experts, however, believe that such an aggressive move could backfire, uniting the remaining Hollywood studios -- Universal, Paramount, DreamWorks SKG, and Warner Bros., to name a few -- against Blu-ray and in support of HD-DVD.
Regardless, though, HD-DVD doesn't have PlayStation 3 to sell the format and Blu-ray does. And as we learned in the DVD versus Divx war, the studios will eventually come around to the dominant format.
What it All Means to Consumers -- and Will They Care?
If Sony has its way, in three years the DVD format could seem as outdated as VHS. If PlayStation 3 performs half as well as its predecessor, more than 40 million people around the world will eventually own a Blu-ray player simply by owning a PS3. And while that's definitely good news for early adopters and audio/videophiles who can't wait to watch true high-definition movies, it's also good news for videogame players. Blu-ray promises more storage space for developers, which means that games can become even more cinematic. On top of that, Blu-ray discs can potentially store all sorts of extra game content that can be unlocked when activated online, a truth that promises to make the end play experience that much more interactive. The die-hards will be there. The question is, will the average consumer care?
The DVD format only earlier this year finally overtook VHS in rental sales, which proves that there are still quite a few home watchers reluctant to give the medium a try. And now that it's really taken off, new, better mediums loom. Is it too soon? And will consumers be happy about the prospect of re-purchasing the dozens of movies that they currently own on DVD?
Some of the world's biggest electronics and computer companies say yes. They believe that the time is right. Sony's poised to lead the charge and Microsoft and Nintendo may be forced to follow if they want to be seen as legitimate competitors.
If nothing else, the next-generation of consoles may prove once and for all that consumers either do or don't want their movies with their videogames.-- Matt Casamassina
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